"In this paper we develop a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the effects of illustrative circular economy scenarios for Denmark and the European Union using the GTAP 8 dataset. The goal of a circular economy is to minimize the use of virgin resources and the generation of residuals not re-used in production.  We simulate four circularity scenarios – two Denmark specific circularity scenarios and two scenarios that affect the European Union. The modeling results show that Denmark’s gross domestic product (GDP) could increase by 0.8% to 1.4% relative to the...

The work by Hu et al. (2015) was conducted within the same project as modelling by Meyer et al. (2015) and it examines the same set of scenarios. However, there are some major differences between the two exercises, including modelling principles, policy implementation and reference scenarios, which results in discrepancies in results. The GDP trajectory until 2050 estimated by Hu et al. (2015) is almost the same in the baseline as well as in the “Global cooperation” and “EU goes ahead” cases. Implementation of policies under both scenarios, however, appears to yield optimistic results in...

Meyer et al. examine a combined policy consisting in resource use and CO₂ emissions reduction targets using the GINFORS model. Specifically, they analyze different ways of achieving environmental targets, which relate to CO₂ emissions, cropland footprint, raw material consumption and water exploitation index. In the first case (“Global cooperation”), the authors assume that all countries in the world share the environmental targets and a global policy mix is adopted, which includes measures to reduce climate impacts and to enhance biotic and abiotic material...

"Addressing climate change and natural resource depletion has been key to the international and national sustainability agenda for almost 30 years. Despite existing efforts, global CO2 emissions and raw material use levels continue to grow. This seems to suggest the need for more systemic approaches in environmental policy. Our paper contributes modelling results to assess the potential of efficiency improvements to achieve absolute decoupling of global raw material use and environmental impacts from economic growth. We apply the global, dynamic MRIO model GINFORS to simulate potential...

"The  purpose  of  deliverable  D6.2  is  to  support  with  a  quantitative  economic  assessment  the evaluation  of  a  set  of  policies  scrutinized  within  the  DYNAMIX  project, aiming  to  promote decoupling of resources use from GDP and material efficiency within the EU. The  analytical  tools  used  for  the  investigation  are  three  macro- economic  models,  ICES,MEMO  and  MEWA,  all  belonging  to  the  category  of  Computable  General  Equilibrium modelling,  but  with  complementary  characteristics.  More  specifically:  they  all  provide  a sectoral  representation ...

"Collaborative platforms, such as Airbnb, Blablacar and Peerby, have changed the ways in which goods and services are offered and consumed in the economy. There has been a recent growth in studies analysing the drivers, impacts and scope of the collaborative economy. Some of them point to positive environmental impacts of such platforms. However, none of the studies so far have provided a systematic, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impacts. This study fills this gap by answering two questions: (1) What is the environmental impact of the collaborative economy today and in the...

"The study looked at trends of circular economy activities across different sectors and quantified these activities as modelling inputs to provide employment changes for different sectors. Furthermore, the analysis provide estimates of the occupational shifts and skills requirements that a shift to a more circular economy could entail. The aim of this report is to develop an understanding of how a transition towards a more circular and resource efficient economy in Europe will affect labour markets across the Member States." (...

This report aims at providing an overview of possible macroeconomic and other impacts that increasing the share of biofuels and other renewable-energy sources could have. Since several studies have been conducted on these topics already, the project team’s work for this report took the form of desk research (as opposed to the case-study work done for other topic areas within CIRCULAR IMPACTS). The project team identified relevant studies in recent literature and collected their key findings into an integrated overview. Due to the importance of biological energy sources both in the EU...

In this case study paper, phosphorus recycling from manure is discussed, with a special focus on the recycling process developed by the BioEcoSIM consortium. We analysed phosphorus flows globally, at a European level and on a national level, with a focus on the Netherlands. In the Netherlands, as in some other regions in Western Europe, there is excess supply of manure due to intensive livestock production. The oversupply, combined with legislation, generates a negative manure price. This negative manure price creates the business case for BioEcoSIM and other manure processing techniques....

"The focus of this paper is to review the literature on the [...] macroeconomic implications of the transition to a more circular economy and increased efficiency in the use of material resources. Addressing this issue is complex. Any such transition will involve multiple interactions between different sectors and countries, and will take place parallel with other trends like digitalisation and automation. Ex ante, economy-wide quantatitve models apppear to be best suited to analysing this transition as they capture the major drivers of economic consequences. Furthermore, there is...